FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|Michigan, Washington bring contrast of styles to College Football Playoff title game

And now for something completely different.

For the first time since the College Football Playoff's debut season in 2014 and FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Centerjust the second time since 2005, the Bowl Subdivision's championship game will not feature at least one team from the SEC.

Instead, Monday's matchup in Houston will feature two current and future members of the Big Ten in No. 1 Michigan and No. 2 Washington. This marks the fourth time in playoff history the championship game will pit two unbeaten teams.

The three-time defending Big Ten champion Wolverines had dropped two playoff games in a row before taking down Alabama in overtime in the Rose Bowl. Eight years into the Jim Harbaugh era, this victory validated the program's immense growth since hitting rock bottom during the 2020 COVID season.

Washington took home the final Pac-12 championship thanks to two key wins against rival Oregon. The Huskies and Ducks will join the Big Ten next season as the league expands to 18 teams.

On its face, the game presents an interesting juxtaposition in style: Michigan as the bruising, bullying Big Ten throwback, and Washington the finesse-driven, pass-happy offense looking to speed up the tempo to negate the Wolverines' strength.

The truth about each team is much more complicated.

"Everybody thinks out on the West Coast it’s just basketball on grass," Washington offensive guard Julius Buelow said. "I hear this and that, we’re soft or whatever."

After handling the Longhorns' vaunted defensive front and controlling possession for over 36 minutes in their Sugar Bowl victory, the Huskies have established themselves as a team very capable of winning in multiple ways — not just by playing at a fast tempo but by adapting to the situation to keep an opponent off-balance.

But the one constant is the play of quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who turned in a classic playoff performance with 430 yards and two touchdowns against Texas.

As Penix goes, so does Washington. He's a "special individual," said All-America wide receiver Rome Odunze.

The first key question behind the championship game: Can Michigan slow down Penix, or is that even possible?

There is no marker based on this season to suggest the Wolverines are prepared for Penix and this Washington receiver corps can bring to the table. Statistically, Michigan's pass defense is one of the best in the FBS: regular-season opponents averaged 5.8 yards per attempt (fifth nationally) with just seven touchdowns (first) against 16 interceptions (ninth).

Michigan and Notre Dame are the only FBS teams to allow fewer than 10 touchdown passes with at least 10 interceptions.

But the Wolverines have yet to face a quarterback like Penix nor a cast of receivers close to Washington's caliber. Of Michigan's 14 opponents, only two, Maryland and Ohio State, rank higher than 55th nationally in passing yards per game. Those two teams combined for 518 passing yards on 8.5 yards per attempt, though Michigan did force four interceptions against two touchdowns.

And while Michigan did face Ohio State's Marvin Harrison, maybe college football's top individual player regardless of position this season, the Wolverines will be tested by Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk, Jalen McMillan and the Huskies' extreme depth at receiver. And the person delivering the passes will be Penix and not Kyle McCord.

Michigan's best defense may be a high-performing offense. Can the Wolverines hammer away at Washington's defensive front and establish some movement at the point of attack?

They were effective on the ground against the Crimson Tide. Led by Blake Corum's 83 yards and a score, the Wolverines went for 130 yards on 32 carries and made things easier for quarterback J.J. McCarthy. After a dreadful game in last year's loss to TCU, McCarthy completed 17 of 27 attempts for 227 yards and three touchdowns without an interception.

Comically overlooked since taking over as the starter last season, McCarthy has built a case for being seen as the best quarterback in program history. Still, an up-and-down game would favor Washington, if simply because that would be familiar territory for the Huskies and more foreign ground for the Wolverines.

Two potentially crucial elements to consider are penalties and how each team fares in the red zone.

While they had a season-low 39 penalty yards in the Sugar Bowl, the Huskies have been one of the most penalized teams in the FBS. New Mexico is the only team to commit more penalties (107) and average more penalty yards per game (71.4) than Washington. On the other hand, Michigan ranks first in the FBS in penalties per game (2.9) and ranks second in average penalty yards per game (26.2) behind Air Force.

And though both teams are effective on offense in the red zone, Michigan does a better job turning those trips into six points. Thanks to a stout running game and offensive line, the Wolverines have capitalized on 55 of 62 total red-zone trips, with touchdowns accounting for 45 of those scores.

Defensively, though, Michigan has allowed opponents to turn appearances in the red zone into touchdowns on just 10 of 23 opportunities, the fifth-best average in the FBS. Washington's opponents have scored touchdowns on 35 of 50 trips, an average that ranks 117th nationally.

These little details could play a huge role. But the biggest factor in deciding the national championship may come down to this: Which team can dictate the flow of action on offense?

Michigan will be hard to beat if running the ball effectively on first down and putting together the sort of sustained drives that would wear down the Huskies' defense. If able to get up and down the field by sharing the wealth among three of four receivers, Washington could give Michigan nightmarish flashbacks to the humbling loss to the Horned Frogs.

"Yeah, I think the aggressiveness is just who we are," said Washington coach Kalen DeBoer.

Don't look for either team to shrink from the challenge. If ever in doubt in the first place, Michigan's physical and mental toughness has been solidified by the overtime win against the Crimson Tide. Washington's fortitude has been on display all throughout a season defined by narrow, single-possession wins. Which team blinks?