SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center:AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Oklahoma’s state primary runoff elections

WASHINGTON (AP) — Three Republican Oklahoma state lawmakers will go before voters for the second time in about two months in runoff elections on SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank CenterTuesday. They are among the candidates in 10 state legislative districts to compete once again for the Republican nomination after failing to win an outright majority in the June 18 primary.

In Senate District 3, state Sen. Blake “Cowboy” Stephens faces a challenge from physician Julie McIntosh in his bid for a second term. Stephens has the backing of state Attorney General Gentner Drummond. McIntosh, a former county health department official, has endorsements from Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt, U.S. Rep. Josh Brecheen (listed as “John Brecheen” on McIntosh’s campaign website) and Carolyn Coburn, the widow of former Republican U.S. Sen. Tom Coburn.

Stephens edged McIntosh in the June 18 primary, 38.1% to 37.4%. Wagoner city councilmember Patrick Sampson placed third with 24.5%. Either Stephens or McIntosh will face independent candidate Margaret Cook in November. No Democrat will appear on the ballot.

In House District 32, state Rep. Kevin Wallace faces a tough reelection bid against energy company executive Jim Shaw. Wallace, the chair of the House Appropriations and Budget Committee, has the governor’s endorsement but placed second in the June 18 primary, with about 42% of the vote, compared to about 46% for Shaw. The winner will run unopposed in November.

RELATED COVERAGE ‘It’s our time': As Harris accepts the nomination, many women say a female president is long overdue Kamala Harris’ racial and cultural firsts were onstage throughout the Democratic convention The ‘joyful’ Democratic convention ends with stark realities coming to light

In House District 98, state Rep. Dean Davis seeks a fourth term, but first must clear a primary challenge from Gabe Woolley, an elementary school teacher, podcast host and parents’ rights advocate. Davis was censured by the House and stripped of his committee assignments following his arrest in March 2023 for public drunkenness. His committee assignments were restored after he submitted a written apology nearly a year later in February. He was previously charged in August 2019 with driving under the influence, speeding and obstructing an officer.

In the June 18 primary, Davis was the top vote-getter by one vote. He received 911 votes to Woolley’s 910 votes, with the remaining 327 votes going to J. David Taylor. The winner of the Republican runoff will face Democrat Cathy Smythe in November.

Among the seven remaining runoffs that do not feature an incumbent is the Republican contest in Senate District 15, where Lisa Standridge is running to succeed her husband, outgoing GOP state Sen. Rob Standridge. She was the top vote-getter in the June 18 primary, followed by Robert Keyes, a drilling and construction company executive. The winner will face Democrat Elizabeth Foreman.

Half of Oklahoma’s 28 state Senate seats and all 101 state House seats are up for election in 2024, although many of those races are uncontested or do not feature a Democratic candidate. Republicans hold overwhelming supermajorities in both chambers.

Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:

Primary runoff day

The Oklahoma state primary runoff elections will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in 10 contests on Tuesday, all of them Republican primary runoff elections. State Senate runoffs will be held in the 3rd, 15th, 33rd and 47th Districts, while state House runoffs will be held in the 20th, 32nd, 50th, 53rd, 60th and 98th Districts.

Who gets to vote

Only registered Republicans may vote in Republican primary runoffs. Democrats and independents may not participate.

Decision notes

What to know about the 2024 Election

• Today’s news: Follow live updates from the campaign trail from the AP.
• Ground Game: Sign up for AP’s weekly politics newsletter to get it in your inbox every Monday.
• AP’s Role: The Associated Press is the most trusted source of information on election night, with a history of accuracy dating to 1848. Learn more.
  

Senate District 3 in Western Oklahoma includes parts of Cherokee, Mayes, Rogers and Wagoner counties. Wagoner contributed 65% of the total district vote in the June primary. McIntosh carried Wagoner and Rogers, while Stephens won Cherokee and Mayes. Sampson, the Wagoner councilmember, had his best showing in Wagoner, placing second and edging out Stephens by 12 votes.

Wagoner also plays an important role in House District 98, comprising 61% of the June primary vote. Woolley led Davis in Wagoner, 44% to 42%, a margin of only 20 votes. Davis carried Tulsa County, 43% to 40%, or 21 votes.

Lincoln County is the key to winning contests in House District 32 in central Oklahoma. It comprised 91% of the district’s June primary vote. Shaw beat Wallace in Lincoln, 47% to 42%. He also carried Logan County by a wide margin, while Wallace prevailed in Payne County.

Runoffs tend to be lower-turnout events than the initial elections that prompted them. This could slow the race-calling process for a competitive contest, especially in smaller state legislative districts. In these cases, determining the outcome could rest on a small handful of ballots that have yet to be tabulated.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Oklahoma’s automatic recount law only applies to ballot measures, not to races with candidates. Candidates may request and pay for a recount regardless of the vote margin. The costs are refunded if the recount changes the outcome of the race.

What do turnout and advance vote look like?

As of Aug. 1, there were nearly 2.4 million registered voters in Oklahoma. Of those, 52% were Republicans, 28% were Democrats and 20% were independents.

More than 297,000 voters participated in the June 18 primary, most of them Republicans. Voter turnout in the Republican primaries was about 20% of registered Republicans.

Among the 10 jurisdictions that were forced to runoffs, the amount of pre-election day voting in the June 18 primaries varied from district to district. The highest was in House District 53 with 16% of ballots cast before election day. The lowest was in Senate District 33, with 7%. In seven of the 10 districts, the level of pre-election day voting was at least 12%.

As of Thursday, slightly more than 10,000 ballots had been cast before runoff day for contests throughout the state, beyond just the 10 state legislative runoffs that the AP will be covering. Of those, about 5,800 or 58% of pre-election day ballots cast came from Republicans.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the June 18 primary, the AP first reported results at 8:08 p.m. ET, or eight minutes after polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 10:22 p.m. ET with about 99.9% of total votes counted.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 70 days until the November general election.

___

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.